Democrat challenger Pete Barca got more votes in the primary than incumbent U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil. But that “victory” in the 1st Congressional District comes with major caveats, experts say.
By Peter Cameron, THE BADGER PROJECT
Republicans have held the 1st Congressional District in southeastern Wisconsin for 20 years, and the last Democrat to sit that seat is now trying to win it back. With the House majority in sight, he got some encouraging news in the primary election earlier this month.
No one challenged U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil or that Democratic opponent, Pete Barca, in their partisan primaries. Barca won nearly 60,000 votes compared to more than 52,000 for Steil, according to a count by The Badger Project of the unofficial totals in the parts of the five counties that make up the 1st Congressional District.
The official tallies won’t be known for a few weeks, but based on past elections, they shouldn’t change drastically, said Joel DeSpain, a spokesman for the Wisconsin Elections Commission.
Those initial numbers suggest the general election could be close, said Barry Burden, a political science professor at UW-Madison.
“Without much else of interest on the ballot besides statewide constitutional amendments, their vote totals in the primary are some indication of the enthusiasm to vote in each party,” he wrote in an email.
In 2022, when Steil had to defend his district for the first time since it was redrawn to be more competitive, he easily defeated his Democratic challenger Ann Roe with about 163,000 votes to her 136,000.
In the partisan primary that year, both candidates ran unopposed and Steil won many more votes than his eventual challenger, with about 73,000 to her 48,000.
But people should take caution in drawing too many conclusions from these primary results, said Joe Lenski, co-founder of Edison Research, a firm that analyzes elections and other industries.
“In 2022, the overall Republican primary turnout in Wisconsin was driven by a competitive U.S. Senate primary, while in 2024, the overall primary turnout seems to have been driven by the (Democratic Party’s) campaign to defeat the two ballot measures that would have limited some powers of the Governor,” he noted.
Democrats and their allies vastly outspent Republicans in the run-up to the 2024 primary, attacking the ballot measures and urging folks to vote no.
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One Republican takes an even stronger position. Uncontested primary contests rarely have any predictive value, said Joe Handrick, a former state representative in the 1990s who represented Minocqua.
“The reason is that turnout in these situations is, by definition, driven by races other than the uncontested primaries,” he noted.
And the electorate in November will be very different, especially considering the race for president is on the ballot.
“One complication is that the general election will bring out many more voters who are less attentive to the details of politics and who tend to vote for familiar incumbents such as Steil, unless the challenger provides them with clear reasons to change course,” Burden said. “For this reason, incumbents are strongly favored in congressional elections.”
Despite that built-in advantage, Steill is getting his most serious challenge in his young political career.
Barca, a 69-year-old Kenosha native, is an experienced politician, and well-known in the district. He held the congressional seat for one term in 1993-1994, and later served as the Assembly Minority Leader for several terms.
Steil, 43, from Janesville, first won the seat in 2018 after its former holder, then-Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, retired.
With the House majority up for grabs, the incumbent isn’t standing idle. He holds a huge fundraising lead, with more than $4.7 million on hand, compared to about $650,000 for Barca, through July 24, the last time the candidates had to file a report.
Democrats have put the district in their Red to Blue program that targets flippable seats. Republicans currently hold a slim majority.
THE ISSUES
Both candidates have a long list of priorities, and the pair have similar stances on issues like public safety, border security, working to lower prices and supporting veterans in the right-leaning district.
But the candidates differ on partisan issues like abortion, with each candidate taking his party’s side in the debate. Steil also stresses the Second Amendment on his campaign website, as well as the importance of cutting government spending to reduce the debt and deficit.
Barca notes traditional liberal values of worker rights, reproductive freedom and affordable health care on his campaign website. But running in a pink district, he also stresses support for bipartisanship and other centrist positions.
The Badger Project is a nonpartisan, citizen-supported journalism nonprofit in Wisconsin.