This photo hurt Barnes last time. Public opinion has shifted greatly since then.

In his latest run for statewide office, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes may find an easier path, experts say, as the politics on at least one major issue have changed drastically.

By Peter Cameron, THE BADGER PROJECT

Way back in 2018, when Mandela Barnes was running to be lieutenant governor, he wrote on a public social media account, “I need that.” to a photo of a T-shirt that said “Abolish ICE.” A photo of him holding up the shirt emerged online later that year.

The photo “dogged” Barnes’ 2022 run for U.S. Senate that he narrowly lost to Republican incumbent Ron Johnson, said Barry Burden, a UW-Madison political science professor.

“The campaign did not have an immediate explanation for the photo, “so the focus on it lingered and distracted Barnes from promoting a more purposive campaign message,” Burden continued. “The photo also circulated in conservative networks on social media and probably helped to energize Republican voters to prevent Barnes’ election.”

Times have changed.

After its aggressive tactics in Minneapolis, including the killing of two unarmed citizens, approval of ICE has sunk deep in Wisconsin, according to a Marquette University poll released in March, with 61% of respondents saying they disapprove of how the agency is enforcing immigration laws, and only 39% saying they approve. Those numbers mirror national ones.

On top of that, “ICE is also now closely linked to Trump, at a time when the president’s approval ratings have soured and his party is facing an uphill fight in the midterm elections,” Burden noted.

“If Barnes becomes the party’s nominee, the photo will not have the bite that it did four years ago,” Burden said.

The huge shift in public opinion on the issue might even flip a negative into a positive for the candidate.

“The picture could help in increasing turnout for Mandela in Madison and Milwaukee,” said Ed Miller, a political science professor emeritus at UW-Stevens Point, noting the blue areas where the Democrats get much of their vote total in the state.

Barnes has tried to align with public opinion on this issue. His 2026 campaign pointed to public statements in which he said he did not support abolishing ICE and that violent criminals in the country illegally should be deported, but also that accountability is needed for ICE officers who wear masks and make arrests without warrants.

The photo could also be helpful to the Republicans’ likely candidate, the fierce Trump ally and immigration hardliner U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, to drive turnout amongst his base, said Brandon Scholz, an independent political analyst, but “I don’t see this as a high-profile, anti-Barnes ad.”

He noted how the Trump Administration has moved its harsh immigration enforcement out of the spotlight after the fiasco in Minnesota hurt it politically.

“Unless something else happens, I don’t see the ICE issue playing big” in the gubernatorial campaign, Scholz said, though he noted a lot could change in the six months before the election.

The race for the Democratic nomination for governor appears wide open. In a Marquette University poll from March, the most recent to gather support for the gubernatorial candidates, Barnes trailed state Rep. Francesca Hong, a Madison progressive and service industry worker, 14% to 11% amongst Democratic primary voters, with 65% of respondents saying they were still undecided.

They were followed by Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, both with 3%.

Barnes had the highest name recognition amongst all registered voters, at 56% of respondents. Tiffany came in at 50%. But Barnes also had the lowest net favorability, at -6, with 25% having a favorable view of him and 31% unfavorable. Hong had a -2 net favorability rating in the poll, but only 28% of respondents said they recognized her name.

Tiffany was above water in terms of favorability in the March poll, at +2, with 26% of respondents saying they view him favorably and 24% unfavorably.

The Badger Project is a nonpartisan, reader-supported journalism nonprofit in Wisconsin.