Normally synchronized with the president, Rep. Derrick Van Orden has moved to the center on a couple of major issues. Is he worried about his chances in Wisconsin’s most competitive district?

By Peter Cameron, THE BADGER PROJECT

Rep. Derrick Van Orden is a vocal supporter of President Donald Trump, recently calling him “the most badass President in history” on his social media account, from which Van Orden posts frequently and aggressively in skirmishes with people famous and obscure on the Political Left. Last year, he posted that the judge who presided over the trial that led to Trump’s felony convictions was “Communist Scum.”

But the Republican fire-breather represents a swing district, one that narrowly voted for Trump in recent elections. And Van Orden got fewer votes in the district in his first reelection fight in 2024 than the president did, one of several data points suggesting the congressman might face a tougher path to victory without Trump on the ballot in this year’s midterms.

“Everything I’ve seen has this race as a tossup,” said Joseph Heim, a political science professor emeritus at UW-La Crosse. “And given that historically this should be an election that favors Democrats, he should be moderating his conservative image, especially because it is a purple district.”

Van Orden has tiptoed towards the center recently. While still calling for the repeal of Obamacare, he and just a few other House Republicans voted with Democrats in early January to temporarily extend subsidies for people who buy health insurance on the Obamacare exchanges. The day before, he had voted against bringing that measure to the floor.

The congressman from Prairie du Chien called his vote to temporarily extend the subsidies “a necessary off-ramp to prevent Americans from losing coverage because of Democrats’ policy failures.” Republicans currently control both Houses of Congress and the presidency, allowing them to pass legislation without Democratic votes. Wisconsin Democrats called the vote “a desperate attempt to save his reelection campaign.”

Senate negotiations have so far stalled on extending the subsidies, which expired at the end of 2025, and will almost certainly result in the increase of premiums for the 20 million people nationally on the Obamacare exchanges. The president has said he may veto any deal involving reviving the subsidies.

“He knows the number of voters and the medical institutions in his district that rely on the (Obamacare) subsidy,” Ed Miller, a UW-Stevens Point political science professor emeritus, wrote in an email to The Badger Project. “However, at the same time, he made statements reiterating what Trump is saying about (Obamacare). There is no question he wants to maintain Trump’s support.”

Also, Van Orden is one of 126 co-sponsors of a bipartisan bill to ban members of Congress from owning and trading stocks, a measure that’s very popular with voters but less so with those elected officials.

“These two actions by Van Orden certainly indicate his concern regarding next November ‘s election,” Heim said.

The professor also noted the usually press-averse Van Orden has been doing more public interviews with reporters recently.

Miller said members of Congress typically moderate their positions as elections approach. But this year might be more complicated for GOP incumbents.

“With the increased polarized electorate, this (movement to the center) may be less of a trend,” Miller said, “especially with Trump’s threat to run a candidate against them in the primary.”

Mostly running along about 250 miles of the Mississippi River, the 3rd Congressional District contains the bluer cities of La Crosse, Eau Claire and Stevens Point, and is considered Wisconsin’s most competitive.

Both parties spent heavily there in 2024 and are ramping up again this year. Van Orden may face the same challenger, Rebecca Cooke, of Eau Claire, whom he defeated by about 3 percent points. Eau Claire Council President Emily Berge is also running for the Democratic nomination in the district.

Voters got a hint of the campaign’s tenor earlier this month when former Secretary of Transportation and possible Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg held a town hall in La Crosse with Cooke, a small business owner, waitress and former Democratic fundraiser.

Several times, Buttigieg reminded the crowd of about 1,000 that Van Orden has failed to hold any public, in-person listening sessions, a frequent Democratic attack line. The congressman has held virtual, online sessions.

Miller noted that Van Orden’s campaign issued a “nasty” public statement about Buttigieg before the rally began.

The press release said the former Secretary of Transportation was part of “one of the worst administrations in American history” and that Van Orden “is working to fix what Democrats broke.”

“Looks like it was written by the Trump people,” Miller said.

The Badger Project is an independent, reader-supported news nonprofit in Wisconsin.