Model predicts 926 deaths in Wisconsin, peak hospital usage by April 27

BY PETER CAMERON

Wisconsin hospitals will reach their peak usage of resources – things like beds and ventilators – starting April 27, according to a model from the University of Washington.

As of Wednesday, it also predicts 926 deaths by Aug. 4 in Wisconsin from the coronavirus. That’s a slight downward adjustment from the day before.

The model assumes people will continue social distancing until the end of May.

Hospitals in the state have 5,364 beds available, but the model predicts Wisconsin will only need 2,486 – 46 percent – during the peak.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research center at the University of Washington, developed the model.

The model forecasts that New York, the state hardest hit by the pandemic, will see nearly 16,000 deaths by Aug. 4.

It also predicts about 94,000 deaths nationally. Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, estimates the virus could kill as many as 240,000 Americans. That’s with social distancing guidelines, banning of gatherings and closing of businesses in place. If the country did nothing, government models estimate 2.2 million would die.

Wisconsin has 1,550 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of Wednesday, according to the Wisconsin Department of Health Services. At least 24 Wisconsin residents have died, the department reported Wednesday.

FiveThirtyEight has weighed in on how difficult it is to create an actual model of the spread and toll of the coronavirus.

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