Before Republican Derrick Van Orden won it in 2022, Democrats had held the 3rd Congressional District for a quarter of a century. But times have changed.

By Annie Pulley, THE BADGER PROJECT

After two unsuccessful congressional runs, Rebecca Cooke finally flipped Wisconsin’s 3rd District for the Democrats, unseating 2-term Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden and piling on the massive Democratic wave that swept the nation.

Cooke won by more than six points, or about 22,000 votes out of nearly 330,000 cast. In 2022, Cooke lost the Democratic primary to state Sen. Brad Pfaff, and in 2024, Cooke made it to the general election, but Van Orden defended his seat by nearly three points, or about 12,000 votes.  

So what changed?

For starters, the party in the White House tends to do worse in the midterm elections, said Anthony Chergosky, a political science professor at UW-La Crosse. President Donald Trump’s approval rating is at about 37%, which further improved the political climate for Democrats. Cooke’s name recognition from running two previous times also helped, Chergosky said. 

“This is a victory for all of US,” Cooke wrote in a Facebook post after her victory. “For anyone who is struggling to pay your rent or mortgage, drowning in medical debt, worrying if you’ll have to sell the farm. Help is coming. The real work begins now.” 

Van Orden also spoke to his supporters after his defeat. 

“Now she’s gonna represent me in Congress, and it’s incumbent upon you to make sure that you understand that and that you support her,” Van Orden said. “That’s who we are as Americans. That’s who we are as Republicans, and that’s what we’re gonna do. So I wish Rebecca Cooke the absolute very, very best.”

This year, Cooke campaigned like “her life depended on it,” according to Joseph Heim, a political science professor emeritus at UW-La Crosse. 

Democratic strongholds in the district, including La Crosse, Eau Claire and Stevens Point, Heim said, “turned out with much enthusiasm.” 

“Van Orden’s past was remembered by many,” he continued. “This is a purple area and he was seen as being too far right, while Cooke came across more moderate and middle of the road.”

Moderates had held the district for decades. Prior to the election of Derrick Van Orden, a sharp-elbowed online brawler with a history of public confrontations, the moderate Democrat Ron Kind represented the 3rd for 26 years, before retiring in 2022. Another moderate, Republican Steve Gunderson, held the seat for 16 years before that. In 1994, Gunderson became the first openly gay Republican to win re-election.

Cooke has worked hard to promote her moderate bona fides, working as a waitress at two restaurants during the campaign and reporting more than $12,000 in income in 2025 and the first half of 2026 from the jobs on her financial disclosure form.

The closely watched 2026 race, which drew tens of millions of dollars in spending on political advertising, including from donors like Elon Musk, was one of two Wisconsin congressional districts to switch from red to blue. Wisconsin’s 1st District in southeastern Wisconsin, held by Rep. Bryan Steil since 2019, also flipped for emergency room nurse and political newcomer Mitchell Berman.  

Now the question is whether Cooke can keep her seat.  

The margin of victory for a freshman member of Congress often increases in the first reelection cycle, said Ed Miller, a political science professor emeritus at UW-Stevens Point. This “sophomore surge,” as Miller called it, could be boosted if the Wisconsin Supreme Court carries out congressional redistricting, as it did on the state level in 2024. 

But it’s “anyone’s guess what will happen in two years,” Heim wrote in an email to The Badger Project.

For those on the political left who think the 3rd Congressional District is back in Democrats’ column long-term, Chergosky urged caution.

The blue surge in western Wisconsin could be “exceptional,” he said. When the national environment neutralizes, Republicans could recover in 2028 if they can rebuild their margins in rural counties and keep Cooke’s margins in La Crosse and Eau Claire closer to her numbers in the 2024 election.

“This election alone can’t tell us whether Wisconsin’s shift to the right during the Trump era has genuinely reversed,” Chergosky wrote.

For now, Cooke and Berman, who will represent southeast Wisconsin, are on their way to Washington, joining the newly Democratic majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

That means the state’s 8-person congressional delegation will be evenly split between Republicans and Democrats for the first time in years.

Democrats previously held only two seats: Rep. Mark Pocan’s district, which includes Madison, and Rep. Gwen Moore’s district, which includes the city of Milwaukee.

The party will have a huge majority in the 435-member U.S. House of Representatives in 2027. They have already clinched 247 seats and are likely to add several more in the coming days and weeks as the final votes are counted, analysts say.

This story was funded by a grant from Press Forward’s Election Integrity Fund.

The Badger Project is an independent news nonprofit in Wisconsin.